Examining the potential changes in tax policy under the leadership of Trump or Harris: What might we expect after the election?

The upcoming election is expected to have a major impact on federal tax laws. Looking ahead, especially in relation to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), there is a great chance of significant changes. Regarding what the future holds for business and personal taxes, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have presented opposing points of view. Let’s review the proposals made by each candidate and discuss how the outcome of this election could affect the tax landscape moving forward.

An Analysis of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

Major changes to the tax systems for companies and individuals in the United States (U.S.), brought about by the TCJA are still felt today. What was once one of the highest tax rates globally, the business tax rate lowered significantly from 35% to 21%. This change was made to increase the U.S.’ global competitiveness, thereby reducing the need for businesses to relocate their activities elsewhere. Reducing the business tax rate to 21% helped place the U.S. in the middle of the worldwide tax rate scene and prevent corporations from relocating overseas. This business tax reduction has been made permanent, which means that businesses can count on it in the future unless any new legislation changes.

It’s important to note that for individuals, the tax cuts established by the Act are not permanent; they are temporary measures that are scheduled to expire in 2026. The highest tax rate for individuals has been decreased from 39.6% to 37%, and there has been a general reduction in tax rates overall. The standard deduction rose significantly at the same time, giving many taxpayers benefits.

Not all individual taxes went down with the TCJA.  Some itemized deductions, including the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, have been capped or otherwise restricted. Depending on where they live, this shift has had varied consequences for taxpayers.

The expiration of these individual tax cuts in 2026 is a key topic in the 2024 election. The incoming administration will face the important decision of whether to extend these cuts, modify them, or let them expire.

Tax Proposals from Donald Trump

Declaring his great support for extending the TCJA, Donald Trump emphasizes the need to even further lower taxes for businesses and individuals. Trump has specifically mentioned a reduced business tax rate, hoping to further lower it from its already reduced 21% down to 15%. This would rank the U.S. among the most tax-competitive nations for businesses, potentially promoting more internal investment and job creation. Furthermore, Trump wants to see the personal tax cuts—which are now scheduled to expire in 2026—become permanent. To promote economic development utilizing these cuts, he is committed to reducing the tax load for both companies and individuals alike.

Additionally, Trump has proposed some unconventional tax ideas, including the possibility of exempting tips and overtime compensation from income taxes. Hospitality workers are required to report their tips as taxable income and Trump’s plan seeks to free them of that responsibility.  Exempting blue collar workers from taxes on overtime may increase productivity from the nation’s manufacturing and industrial sectors.  Trump also calls for removing the tax on Social Security income for retirees, therefore giving seniors even greater financial assistance.

Still, Trump has indicated his readiness to raise specific taxes, especially regarding tariffs. With an eye toward products imported from nations like China, he has proposed taxing imports of goods ranging in percentage terms from 10% to 25%. While these tariffs are frequently talked about in relation to trade policy, they essentially act as a tax on American consumers and have the potential to greatly affect federal revenue.

Tax Proposals from Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has openly expressed a will to reverse important features of the TCJA, particularly those about businesses and high-income individuals. She has signaled an intention to let the individual tax cuts expire in 2026, arguing that those tax cuts mostly benefited millionaires and billionaires. Harris says the business tax rate should be raised from 21% to 28%. Though it stays below the pre-2017 level of 35%, this new rate has great potential to increase federal revenue. Harris contends that this increase is essential for achieving balance and ensuring that corporations play a more significant role in the economy, thereby aiding in the funding of vital public services and programs.

Harris has put forth the proposal of taxing unrealized capital gains for individuals who possess assets exceeding $100 million. Currently, individuals only pay taxes on appreciated assets—such as stocks and real estate—when they sell such assets for a gain.  However, Harris proposes a  plan that taxes the increase in value of these assets, without requiring them to be sold first. People have taken notice of this concept, but it also raises serious concerns about its equity and viability. These rich people would be obliged to pay taxes on income they have not yet really earned, potentially raising serious Constitutional questions. Reflecting her dedication to helping lower-income workers, particularly those in the service industry, Harris has supported the exemption of tips from income taxation, the same as Trump has done.

In conclusion

As the 2024 election approaches, both Trump and Harris are offering contrasting views for the future of federal taxes in the U.S. The outcome of the election will most likely determine whether—especially for individual taxpayers—we observe a continuance or reversal of the TCJA. As the new political environment develops right now, businesses and individuals should be ready for any changes in the tax system.

Content provided by LBMC tax professional, David Frederick.

LBMC tax tips are provided as an informational and educational service for clients and friends of the firm. The communication is high-level and should not be considered as legal or tax advice to take any specific action. Individuals should consult with their personal tax or legal advisors before making any tax or legal-related decisions. In addition, the information and data presented are based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. The information is current as of the date indicated and is subject to change without notice.